Ah the Big 12. There are plenty of rivalries in other conferences and there may even be real animosity between some, but no conference truly hates each other like the Big 12. The hate runs deep and it runs in every direction.
And with that, I hate all of you. So pour yourself a warm glass of shut the hell up and let’s predict the final Big 12 standings.
Texas (11-1)
Losses: Baylor
Why this could be right: I wanted to do it, I really did. On paper Texas looks like a top five team and undefeated. They get Alabama early while the Tide are still figuring out quarterbacks and offensive systems, and most of the Big 12 is replacing or retooling at key areas. Sark has never had a season without a 1,000 yard rusher so the room should be able to collectively make up for losing Bijan and Roschon. But going undefeated is really difficult and a loss is likely coming somewhere. It might be Oklahoma or TCU, but I went with an early season trip to Baylor.
Why this could be message board material: Texas does Texas things and loses games it shouldn’t.
How angry will this fanbase be: Not at all. The kool-aid has been flowing for awhile and there’s no slowing it down.
Kansas State (10-2)
Losses: Texas Tech, Texas
Why this could be right: Will Howard is back and so is most of a very good offensive line. The Wildcats are always good on defense and Daniel Green and Austin Moore should lead a unit that will replace some key starters at edge and secondary.
Why this could be message board material: It shouldn’t be as the floor in Manhattan is about eight wins as long as Chris Klieman is there.
How angry will this fanbase be: Not very. They probably want to beat Texas but we don’t always get the things we want in life.
Oklahoma (10-2)
Losses: Texas, Kansas
Why this could be right: The Sooners had their worst year in a very long time last year but things should be better in 2023. Dillon Gabriel is healthy and leads a better offense but there remain questions for a defense that ranked 99th in points allowed and 122nd in total defense. Still, the schedule for Venables’ squad is Charmin level soft and should be manageable in year 2.
Why this could be message board material: Because while they shouldn’t lose to Kansas I think it would be hilarious if they did.
How angry will this fanbase be: Pretty angry? Ten wins is a solid prediction but missing out on the Big 12 championship and losing to Texas are just two things that don’t sit right with them boys from Oklahoma.
Texas Tech (9-3)
Losses: Oregon, TCU, Texas
Why this could be right: Joey McGuire won his last four games of the season in 2022 to finish 8-5. Optimism is high and I like Tyler Shough. The defense has solid returning production but losing Tyree Wilson isn’t fun. I think an early season contest against Oregon is too tough and two late-season losses to TCU and Texas keep the Red Raiders out of conference championship contention.
Why this could be message board material: It won’t be unless Tech’s secondary comes up big all year.
How angry will this fanbase be: Angry. Tech fans are angrier than most but losing to Texas to miss out on a conference championship is a nightmare scenario.
Baylor (9-3)
Losses: Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU
Why this could be right: Baylor is a good team with a lot of question marks but eight home games should help them out. I like them against Utah early and a win over Texas has them ranked in the top ten after Week 4. But there’s too many holes on the roster and the Bears end the season with three conference losses.
Why this could be message board material: Aranda gets the defense to click early and avoids a loss in the late season grind.
How angry will this fanbase be: Somewhat angry, but this is the Big 12 so everyone is somewhat angry.
TCU (9-3)
Losses: Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma
Why this could be right: Sonny Dykes had an amazing year last year but replacing that much production at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver is a tall task for any coach, even one as good as Sonny. No shame in a 9-win season, just not enough to beat the top teams.
Why this could be message board material: Chandler Morris technically beat out Max Duggan last year and Emani Bailey was really good in spot duty. Trey Sanders and JoJo Earle help out too. Is there enough pass rush help on defense?
How angry will this fanbase be: Meh. They’re gonna be living on 2022 for awhile, as they should.
Oklahoma State (9-3)
Losses: Kansas State, Oklahoma, UCF.
Why this could be right: Alan Bowman is back in the Big 12 but now in Stillwater for Mike Gundy’s squad. Gundy is always competitive but Oklahoma State is missing playmakers on both sides of the ball. Sorry, pokes, but Bedlam ends with another loss to OU.
Why this could be message board material: The ghost of T. Boone Pickens materializes into a running back or receiver to help, otherwise I don’t see it.
How angry will this fanbase be: Somewhat angry, but this is the Big 12 so everyone is somewhat angry.
Kansas (6-6)
Losses: Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State.
Why this could be right: Kansas faces a fairly tough schedule but this isn’t the Kansas of old. Some serious talent on both sides of the ball and I’m a fan of Lance Leipold. Kansas should be competitive in every game this year and go bowling.
Why this could be message board material: Jalon Daniels was a not all that unserious Heisman candidate before he got injured in 2022. What if he returns to that level?
How angry will this fanbase be: It’s not basketball season so not very angry, but Kansas football will get the Lawrence crowds pretty excited this year.
UCF (5-7)
Losses: Boise State, Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech.
Why this could be right: John Rhys Plumlee is somehow still in college but that’s a good thing for the Knights. He’ll bring some veteran leadership to a squad in its first year at the P5 level. Unfortunately, while I think there is some talent on the roster, it lacks depth and in a 12-game grind in the Big 12, that’s going to lead to losses.
Why this could be message board material: Gus Malzhan makes a deal with the devil. On second thought, are we sure he hasn’t already?
How angry will this fanbase be: Somewhat angry, but this is the Big 12 so everyone is somewhat angry and UCF will fit in just fine.
BYU (5-7)
Losses: Arkansas, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State.
Why this could be right: Another new member of the Big 12, Kalani Sitake’s team gets going with Kedon Slovis at the helm. On the other side, the defensive staff is all new and so are most of the players. Like UCF, this newcomer isn’t ready for the grind of a P5 schedule yet.
Why this could be message board material: I’m struggling to see how.
How angry will this fanbase be: Somewhat angry, but this is the Big 12 so everyone is somewhat angry and BYU will fit in just fine.
Cincinnati (6-6)
Losses: Oklahoma, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas.
Why this could be right: Our third newcomer this season will also have a newcomer at coach. Fickell out, Satterfield in. Along with him is former Florida and Arizona State QB Emory Jones but who he throws to is anyone’s guess. Dontay Corleone returns with one of the best names in football to lead the defense but unfortunately the Bearcat’s first season in the Big 12 is up and down all year.
Why this could be message board material: Everything somehow clicks and Satterfield picks up where Fickell left off.
How angry will this fanbase be: Somewhat angry, but this is the Big 12 so everyone is somewhat angry and Cincinnati will fit in just fine.
Iowa State (3-9)
Losses: Iowa, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, BYU, Texas, Kansas State.
Why this could be right: I’ll avoid another gambling joke because Iowa State is going to get a lot of them all year long. Truth is though, the roster is going to be a question all year with so many investigations going on and it’s going to be hard to avoid the noise. It’s gonna be a long year in Ames.
Why this could be message board material: It won’t be.
How angry will this fanbase be: Probably angry that they’re the only ones getting investigated when it’s likely everyone that’s doing it.
Houston (3-9)
Losses: UTSA, TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, UCF.
Why this could be right: Dana Holgorsen is replacing a lot of his offensive starters but there should still be some production out of the Cougars squad. On defense, the same questions are still there, namely does the defense exist?
Why this could be message board material: The defense returns to 2021 levels of production and Dana gets a solid starting quarterback out of Tech transfer, Donovan Smith.
How angry will this fanbase be: Somewhat angry, but this is the Big 12 so everyone is somewhat angry and Houston will fit in just fine.
West Virginia (3-9)
Losses: Penn State, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma State, BYU, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Baylor.
Why this could be right: Neal Brown is hanging on by a thread and praying CJ Donaldson and Lee Kpogba will be able to help him stay another year. It’s probably not happening though as there are questions at signal caller and all throughout the defensive line.
Why this could be message board material: It won’t be but here’s some message board material. West Virginia fires Neal Brown and works a deal with A&M to get Jimbo.
How angry will this fanbase be: Keep an eye on your couches.
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