Welcome to Week 10, folks! With the CFP Committee ruining our chance for a #1 vs #2 battle, we will persevere with the featured game showcasing the #1 Tennessee Vols vs #3 Georgia Bulldogs.
If you’re looking to make money over a weekend, MBG has been the horse to follow having gone 14-1 since week 3. In addition, we’ve added two new staff members with their locks of the week. LET’S GET RICH, AMERICA!
Our guest picker this week comes from the depths of a message board he was the genius of co-founding: @DawgOutWest
Geogia -8 vs Tennessee
The media has gotten so hot and bothered by Tennessee beating Alabama that many pundits are convinced the Vols will walk all over the Bulldogs. You can’t swing a dead raccoon without hitting a “Hooker for Heisman” take or a “The 2022 Vols are 2019 LSU” comparison. The Vols are #1 in the first CFP rankings. The media loves them. Analysts are calling them unstoppable. Only one problem… Vegas looked across that landscape and hung UGA -9 as its opening line on Sunday afternoon. As of Wednesday night one website said that 93% of the public dollars are on the Vols. Despite that, Vegas has only let this spread creep to 8.
First thought… Tennessee has been phenomenal this year. They also could easily be 5-2 and looked fairly pedestrian against the best defensive line they faced when they went to Pittsburgh. If they were to win the National Title they would be the first team with a Blue-Chip Ratio under 50% to ever do so. UT’s roster is only 31% blue-chippers. In terms of how they’re made up, the Bols have a lot more similarities to the 2014 Mississippi State team who opened at #1 when the first CFP rankings came out than they do to 2019 LSU. There’s not NFL players on every level of this team. Georgia on the other hand does have future pros all over its roster.
The tempo that the UT offense runs is a cheat code of sorts in college football. It eliminates the ability to substitute and it is designed to create busted coverages. That happens more so through catching a CB who is staring at the sideline for a play call with his pants down than it does through scheme. This scheme is not a new invention. Heupel was running it at Missouri in 2018 when the Tigers scored 29 on UGA. Giving up that many points to anyone is something Kirby Smart loses sleep over, and he studied the offense during the following offseason.
There are two things that hurt this Tennessee scheme. The first is A & B-Gap pressure from DT’s and ILB’s. The second is boundary CB’s who possess the size to play press coverage against WR’s and also fight through blocks well enough to tackle WR Screen plays. The good news for Georgia is that they have both of those.
UGA will have to stop the run with just 5 men in the box. I think they’ll win a lot more of those battles than they lose. There’s no shutting this offense down entirely, but Georgia can hold UT into the 20’s or the low-30’s.
Far too little attention has been paid this week to Georgia’s offense. The Bulldogs put up 500 yards every week without looking like they’re really trying to. They’ve stayed vanilla for most of the year but they have produced more 12+ yards runs and 16+ yard passes this year than the Vols have. The playbook will be opened wide on Saturday and UGA will control this game with its offensive line.
For as great as UT has been, they still don’t have the horses for a game like this. That’s particularly true on defense. Georgia wins and it won’t be particularly close in the end.
Ohio State -38 @ Northwestern
Northwestern’s offense is anemic. Like maybe worse than Iowa bad. Ohio State is determined to get CJ Stroud to New York in early-December. This spread should be closer to 48. Lay the 38 and put your feet up as the Buckeyes win by 50.s advantage of the demoralized Knights who is coming off of a 34-13 loss to ECU.
Alabama -13.5 @ LSU
- I’m not trusting Bama with a 2 possession spread in a road game until they give me a reason to again. That Tiger Stadium crowd will be rocking
- A lot of the overvaluing of Tennessee is the result of the market not adjusting to the fact that this is the worst Bama defense since 2007 and its offense would be very average if Bryce Young wasn’t a super hero
- The 3 things that give Alabama problems- Good pass rush/DL play, WR’s who can win one-on-one matchups on the outside, mobile quarterbacks… LSU has all of them
All of that might not be enough for LSU to win this game, but it should be enough for them to keep it close enough to cover this number
UNC -7.5 @ UVA
This looks like free money. UNC is averaging over 40 points per game and UVA can’t seem to score at all. Let’s get rich America!
Kansas State +2.5 vs Texas
I’m not sure how Kansas is a home underdog to Texas. This game also looks like free money to me.
Oklahoma St. -2 @ Kansas
The Pokes will bounce back after getting embarrassed last week. They should cruise in Lawrence.
Oregon State +4.5 @ Washington
Another cursed Pac 12 After Dark game on a Friday night. Oregon State is the best defense in the Pac 12, and Jonathan Smith is as good as it gets with coming up with a scheme to beat a good offense. Damien Martinez has been a great addition to the Beavers offense in the past few games.
UNC -7.5 @ Virginia
I agree with my counterparts that this line is absolutely terrible for Virginia. Who is going to stop Drake Maye’s Heisman Train? Definitely not the Hoos.
Tulane -7.5 @ Tulsa
Willie Fritz has the defense to put Tulsa to sleep along with an offense that can move the ball on the Golden Hurricane. Roll Green Waves!
#5 Clemson +3.5 @Notre Dame
ESPN reported that the Fighting Irish are 3-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Additionally, this will be the seventh time they have been a home underdog since 2014; they are 5-1 ATS in the previous games. Plus it feels like Clemson isn’t as formidable this year as they have been in the past. Notre Dame seems to have regained some footing and they’re at home so I’m taking the Irish.
Penn State -14 @ Indiana
James Franklin teams blows big games as regularly as they blow out less unfortunate teams. And Indiana’s pretty unfortunate. The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS since the start of last season according to ESPN. Nittany Lions backup QB Drew Allar could see some action in this game so expect them to crank up some plays for him.
Tennessee +8 @ Georgia
The Vols are 7-1 ATS. WR Cedric Tillman came back recently; alongside Jalin Hyatt, Hendon Hooker will be able to cook. I don’t know how you stop Josh Heupel’s offense. Sorry Dawgs but it won’t be your day.
Ohio State -38 @ Northwestern
Honestly, it doesn’t matter what the spread is. The final score is going to be whatever Ryan Day wants it to be.
Michigan -26 @ Rutgers
Rutgers played a solid game against Michigan last year. I don’t see that happening again. Michigan runs it up.
Iowa @ Purdue OVER 41
Picking the over in an Iowa game is a bold move, Cotton. Purdue’s defense isn’t particularly great. Good enough to beat Iowa, but not quite good enough to keep the total points under 41.
Alabama -13.5 @ LSU
Jayden Daniels is having a good season under first year coach Brian Kelly, but Alabama has talent to spare at every position. Crimson Tide kills the Tigers in Death Valley.
Liberty +14.5 @ Arkansas
Is this Hugh Freeze’s audition for the Auburn brass? Probably not, but Freeze has a good team that’s ranked 23rd and Sam Pittman’s Razorback’s squad is inconsistent. Arkansas wins, Liberty covers.
Tennessee +8 @ Georgia
When Tennessee wins this, lock in Hendon Hooker for the Heisman (no disrespect to CJ Stroud). This game is must watch and I expect it to be close, but the Vols pull off the upset.
Georgia -8 vs Tennessee
It was cute to see Tennessee fans strut and crow last week after getting the Bama elephant off their back. But reality bites like an angry bulldog and the Vols will be sad again.
Notre Dame S/U (+152) vs Clemson
I bet Syracuse and the points last week and Notre Dame ruined my parlay. Therefore, I am cursing the Irish by picking them. Erin go **** yourself.
Iowa S/U (+170) AND +4.5 vs Purdue
Why am I taking Iowa and the points? Because I’m delusional enough to believe Kirk Ferentz has enough human emotion that revenge will be a factor. Probably dumb.
Leave a Reply